Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Deccan Chronicle: How bad can it get ?

 Complete Mayhem. Stock falling 40% in one week, MD resigns, IFCI has filed wind up petition to recover a paltry debt of 28 Cr, Karvy has lodged a police complaint against promoters on charges of forgery.

With each day the stock tanking to lower and lower levels, time to access what all is still left.

 Let us see what the current situation is :

Promoters held 73.83% .Now out of that 54% is with pledged with Future Cap and 14.5% with Religare. So they are effectively left with 5.33% (assuming these are liquidated and sold in the open market.)

LIC holds 5.92% other FIIs hold 1.11%.

Given the scenario, any player can now by 24.99% from market and become the largest shareholder.

The net liquidation value of Media Business (Land & Properties) and Deccan Chargers (IPL team) would be significant to cover any liabilities.

Also if we assume the Corporate Jets business to be losing money, the jets can be sold off / returned in lieu of liabilities.

Satyam was an IT business with no hard assets and the intangible (manpower /resources) was not theirs to control.

Here we have a company with tangible business(newspapers) and hard assets (land, buildings, machinery) and most importantly legally bound intangibles (Deccan Chronicle Brand, Lifetime licensee to IPL team Deccan Chargers).

So inherently there is a lot of value. Once this bear cartel ends, and a suitor appears things may rise brutally on the upside too.

So for the ones, still courageous enough to hold on, DO NOT SELL.

For others who do not have the stomach to digest this volatility sell off and have a good night`s sleep with whatever money you may recover.

ps: Holding On to existing positions (Avg price of 31.2)

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